15 October

The events of 15 October 2011 deserve to go down in history as the first globally co-ordinated protest of the 21^st century. From the Arab Spring, through to the European summer of discontent, the citizens of individual nations have taken turns in expressing their indignation at different systems that they believe are failing them.  But on 15 October, persons from all over the world stood simultaneously for global change.

Much of the detail of the protests center on financial issues, including sovereign currency crises.  What follows are some thoughts on the continued use of domestic currencies in the modern global financial system:

(1) Domestic currencies are, by definition, intended for domestic use only.  To trade internationally one has to exchange currencies through registered brokers and the buy/sell differential rates immediately remove 2,5% of the economic value of each international exchange.

(2) When banks hold their assets in their domestic currencies but borrow in foreign currencies, they make a mockery of minimum liquidity regulations and can, as a result, be thrust into financial distress as result of remote events or weather patterns over which they have little influence or control. Older members of society who depend on savings and investments to generate their income (a demographic group you might not yet belong to but one day surely will…) are particularly vulnerable to the erosive effects of currency depreciation.

(3) When currencies were lifted from objective standards like gold and became valued relative only to other currencies, changes in economic conditions in one region quickly began affecting the value of currencies in other regions. As the global web of trade expanded and became increasingly complex, the inherent instabilities of a financial system based on cross referenced free-floating currencies became more pronounced and institutional speculators began to exploit, and in the process exacerbate, these inherent instabilities for profit.  

(4) Many people have identified the property market bubble in the United States as one cause of the current financial crisis without going further to consider that the United States dollar depreciated against major international currencies by 30% between 2002 and 2007 which encouraged the production of more money by the US Federal Reserve, drove investors towards fixed property assets and banks towards property backed lending, resulting in the property bubble.

So here’s a proposition to consider: the single most effective and practical intervention that can be made to reduce financial instability in the global economy is to introduce a common international currency and allow the price of products and services across different regions to be more naturally determined by factors of quality, supply and demand.

If you don’t agree with the above proposition, then you either don’t believe that the financial system has become inherently unstable or you believe there is a more effective and practical solution to the problem.  If it’s the latter, I hope you will share it.

This is Madrid on Saturday night.